Statistical Technique for Intermediate and Long-Range Estimation of 13-Month Smoothed Solar Flux and Geomagnetic Index

NASA/TM-4759, Niehuss, K.O. and Euler, Jr., H.C. and Vaughan*, W.W., Statistical Technique for Intermediate and Long-Range Estimation of 13-Month Smoothed Solar Flux and Geomagnetic Index, Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory, Science and Engineering Directorate. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, AL 35812 and *University of Alabama in Huntsville, AL., September 1996, pp. 81, Format(s): PDF 4073k

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This report documents the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) 13-month smoothed solar flux (F(sub 10.7)) and geomagnetic index (A(sub p)) intermediate (months) and long-range (years) statistical estimation technique, referred to as the MSFC Lagrangian Linear Regression Technique (MLLRT). Estimates of future solar activity are needed as updated input to upper atmosphere density models used for satellite and spacecraft orbital lifetime predictions. An assessment of the MLLRT computer program's products is provided for 5-year periods from the date estimates were made. This was accomplished for a number of past solar cycles.

Keywords:	natural space environment, solar activity, solar flux, geomagnetic index, statistics, estimates
CASI Document ID Number:	96N33521
Subjects:	Astronautics: Spacecraft Design, Testing And Performance
ID Code:	339
Deposited On:	28 June 2002