NASA/TP-2003-212927, Wilson, Robert M. and Hathaway, David H., Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Maximum, George C. Marshall Space Flight Center , Marshall Space Flight Center, AL 35812, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC 20546-0001, November 2003, pp. 20, Format(s): PDF 725k |
A simple method for monitoring the nearness and size of conventional cycle maximum for an ongoing sunspot cycle is examined. The method uses the observed maximum daily value and the maximum monthly mean value of international sunspot number and the maximum value of the 2–mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number to effect the estimation. For cycle 23, a maximum daily value of 246, a maximum monthly mean of 170.1, and a maximum 2–mo moving average of 148.9 were each observed in July 2000. Taken together, these values strongly suggest that conventional maximum amplitude for cycle 23 would be ≈ 124.5, occurring near July 2002 ±5 mo, very close to the now well–established conventional maximum amplitude and occurrence date for cycle 23–120.8 in April 2000.
| Keywords: | sun, sunspot cycle, solar cycle, solar cycle prediction |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Space Sciences: Solar Physics |
| ID Code: | 650 |
| Deposited On: | 06 January 2004 |